Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.019134 0.021723 0.024542 0.027840 0.031595 0.035740 0.040667
2025-03-30 0.014413 0.017799 0.021813 0.026927 0.033282 0.040934 0.050867
2025-04-06 0.012005 0.015692 0.020320 0.026569 0.034812 0.045342 0.059871
2025-04-13 0.010068 0.013780 0.018662 0.025574 0.035144 0.047980 0.066596
2025-04-20 0.009214 0.013129 0.018493 0.026409 0.037847 0.053863 0.078142
2025-04-27 0.008475 0.012518 0.018262 0.027059 0.040270 0.059493 0.089818
2025-05-04 0.007906 0.012067 0.018178 0.027862 0.042925 0.065635 0.102799
2025-05-11 0.007164 0.011265 0.017476 0.027626 0.043932 0.069328 0.112312
2025-05-18 0.006589 0.010655 0.016990 0.027649 0.045298 0.073638 0.123157
2025-05-25 0.005999 0.009957 0.016289 0.027238 0.045888 0.076705 0.132184
2025-06-01 0.005643 0.009602 0.016100 0.027636 0.047828 0.082131 0.145697
2025-06-08 0.005217 0.009089 0.015598 0.027440 0.048711 0.085801 0.156434
2025-06-15 0.005004 0.008931 0.015696 0.028323 0.051616 0.093343 0.175087
2025-06-22 0.004529 0.008269 0.014861 0.027460 0.051287 0.095066 0.183138
2025-06-29 0.004182 0.007802 0.014328 0.027091 0.051818 0.098377 0.194492
2025-07-06 0.003781 0.007201 0.013495 0.026076 0.051010 0.099062 0.200715
2025-07-13 0.003663 0.007123 0.013630 0.026927 0.053905 0.107146 0.222641
2025-07-20 0.003529 0.007002 0.013670 0.027591 0.056477 0.114811 0.244466
2025-07-27 0.003422 0.006925 0.013784 0.028410 0.059433 0.123508 0.269357
2025-08-03 0.003208 0.006611 0.013402 0.028170 0.060146 0.127599 0.284616
2025-08-10 0.003038 0.006374 0.013158 0.028193 0.061416 0.132973 0.303260
2025-08-17 0.002839 0.006060 0.012725 0.027773 0.061678 0.136173 0.317250
2025-08-24 0.002731 0.005932 0.012673 0.028179 0.063809 0.143688 0.342066